Pacific Beach Housing Bubble Blog

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Updates from the mystery reader, and my own musings

San Diego Prices countywide undergo biggest year-over-year drop on record.

Major S.D. County year over year price declines for November 2006
% Change is for the median price from the same month last year

So CA median home price chart

And I'm sure you guys saw OCRenters great post about lawsuits related to price drops. Here is the a news article about it too.

(Sven note - also, I wanted to copy and paste the foreclosure tracking info from OCRenter's site. I'm sure most people who read my blog also know of his blog, but, if you don't, you should check it out)

San Diego County
08/25/05: 83/3,087 (2.7%)
06/15/06: 354/4,382 (8.1%)
10/31/06: 998/4,983 (20.0%)
11/30/06: 1,304/5,245 (24.9%)
The way to read this is foreclosures/preforeclosures (% that went all the way to foreclosure). All three numbers are up quite a bit.

(another Sven note) - I also wanted to link to a post from the San Diego home blog. This is a real estate agent's blog (married couple actually). In this post Steve Berg was talking about how he was at a discount broker's listing on a broker open house day when the agent blurted out "It’s priced too high. The price will come down. You know sellers!”. This really pissed him off, and he posted some angry comments about the "discount" brokers... This is a funny thing to hear because I actually had this happen to me once as well... but it wasn't a discount broker. I went to an open house on Labor Day at the ocean, and a full-service agent there working with a very prestigious broker told me "Yeah they are asking for too much, but I have a place other than this one that I think you would like" as soon as I walked in the door. (and I was a guy off the street, not an industry "insider" like this discount broker assumed he was talking to)

The problem here is not discount brokers, it's that there was too much easy money in real estate for many years now. The amount of time and energy an agent actually spends working for one of their customers is a small fraction compared to the time they have to spend getting clients now. Some 2% of Californians have a license to sell. This is NOT good for the customer because you really don't want to pay for their advertising and efforts to get you to walk in the door.

A lot of people say "you don't need agents", and view them as a waste of money. I agree to a certain extent, but I think there is definitely value to getting an agent to SELL a place for you. If you are buying, you should go through a discount broker and get back 75% of the buyer commission. The argument the agents always make is that, YOU aren't paying it, but you ARE. You are paying it by paying 3% more for the house because the seller has to pay it. It's like saying you don't have to pay a gas tax because the oil company pays for it. You know they pass this on to the customer... and that's YOU. In this day and age, you can find your house easily on zillow, realtor.com, or with the discount broker's online tools, and you are probably more likely to find a place that is what you are looking for.

Selling a place in a tight or normal market means a lot of time, advertising, and patience. Giving someone 3% to do all that is completely fair as long as they actually do their job. You should be very clear with your agent and track everything that they put into selling your house. 3% on the median San Diego house is almost $15,000. I guarantee if you were paying 15k for any other service, you would expect it to be done very well.

2 Comments:

  • I would have asked for the discount broker's business card. At least there are some good brokers left.

    I wish the rest of the sheep had a better grasp of the market like that broker.

    I'll bet dollars to donuts the price on that place drops. Better to set a lower price and get it sold then have it languish on a falling market.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:20 PM  

  • Absolutely. Too many agents are concerned with making THEIR sale, rather than finding a home suitable for the buyer.

    By Anonymous Neuronomicon, at 7:42 PM  

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