New Year activity
I am seeing a lot of new listings lately. I found a few that are losing money, but I'm going to wait for the first reduction on each before I post them. One thing I like to marvel at is when listings show up that make you want to raise an eyebrow to the seller and ask "Did you even think about checking the comps first?". I call them the "Bubble Boy Awards" for people who just have no concept of the cyclical nature of the real estate market. These people aren't doing themselves a favor by asking for so much. The properties are more often than not vacant, and they are just eaten alive by holding fees while their property collects dust. Sell it or Rent it, don't just sit on it... unless you hate money that is. Just think, there are people who haven't sold their properties from 2005 with multiple tiny price reductions. If they had only dropped the price to the current levels to begin with, it would have sold quickly, and they would have been able to keep all the holding fees in between.
Just think, how much is $100,000 of your time worth? Three years? Two years? One year? 6 months? Yet people expected for their properties to appreciate this much in a year with very little effort.
A good example is:
4028 Lamont
San Diego, Ca. 92109
2 bdrm, 1 bath, 1,016 sqft house on a 2900 sqft lot
Year Built: 1951, 1 garage parking
Asking price: $700,000 ????
It's in Crown Point, but you don't exactly have an ocean view. Now, I consider almost all prices to be over-inflated today, and I honestly believe this will be vindicated in a year or two as the "sticky-correction" occurs (a common concept in real estate that prices tend to move up quickly and go down slowly, therefore down periods typically last longer than up periods). A place like this is just..... mind-boggling. Especially when you can easily find a much better deal.
Here are some comps to prove this sellers "Bubble Boy" status:
1. 3850 Riviera Dr. 1B ($700,000), which has a great front-row view of Sail Bay, it's 1519 sqft, and 3 bdrm, 2 bath.
2. 1925 Wilbur Ave, 2bdrm 2bath, 1492 sqft ($669,000), which has a private pool, a neat view of Pacific Beach, and it's right next to the Kate O Sessions Memorial Park (which has a remarkable view if you have ever been there).
3. (how about an equivalent comp) 1963 Fortuna Ave ($557,000), 2 bdrm, 1 bath, NA sqft house (it's about the same size as 4028 lamont, 2500 sqft lot. It's basically the same property... only $150,000 cheaper. It's even marginally closer to the water.
Just how many gold bricks did they put in the walls to add $150k to the value?
Comments?
Also from the mystery reader: Another Mortgage Lender goes under (Video)
About 1,000 people literally lost their jobs all at once. It was a major sub-prime lender. From what I hear, many sub-prime lenders and sub-prime branches of banks are for sale right now.
Secured Funding also just stopped funding loans as mentioned in this article. Check out the second entry about the scam going on in Temecula/Murrieta. I guess several hundred fraudulent real estate loans in that area have just been uncovered, and this will likely result in a huge impact to the real estate market there.
Crazy stuff, it's a good idea to check your credit report periodically to make sure that you don't end up one of these people being screwed by mortgage fraud. You can do it for free by directly contacting each of the three bureaus.
Just think, how much is $100,000 of your time worth? Three years? Two years? One year? 6 months? Yet people expected for their properties to appreciate this much in a year with very little effort.
A good example is:
4028 Lamont
San Diego, Ca. 92109
2 bdrm, 1 bath, 1,016 sqft house on a 2900 sqft lot
Year Built: 1951, 1 garage parking
Asking price: $700,000 ????
It's in Crown Point, but you don't exactly have an ocean view. Now, I consider almost all prices to be over-inflated today, and I honestly believe this will be vindicated in a year or two as the "sticky-correction" occurs (a common concept in real estate that prices tend to move up quickly and go down slowly, therefore down periods typically last longer than up periods). A place like this is just..... mind-boggling. Especially when you can easily find a much better deal.
Here are some comps to prove this sellers "Bubble Boy" status:
1. 3850 Riviera Dr. 1B ($700,000), which has a great front-row view of Sail Bay, it's 1519 sqft, and 3 bdrm, 2 bath.
2. 1925 Wilbur Ave, 2bdrm 2bath, 1492 sqft ($669,000), which has a private pool, a neat view of Pacific Beach, and it's right next to the Kate O Sessions Memorial Park (which has a remarkable view if you have ever been there).
3. (how about an equivalent comp) 1963 Fortuna Ave ($557,000), 2 bdrm, 1 bath, NA sqft house (it's about the same size as 4028 lamont, 2500 sqft lot. It's basically the same property... only $150,000 cheaper. It's even marginally closer to the water.
Just how many gold bricks did they put in the walls to add $150k to the value?
Comments?
Also from the mystery reader: Another Mortgage Lender goes under (Video)
About 1,000 people literally lost their jobs all at once. It was a major sub-prime lender. From what I hear, many sub-prime lenders and sub-prime branches of banks are for sale right now.
Secured Funding also just stopped funding loans as mentioned in this article. Check out the second entry about the scam going on in Temecula/Murrieta. I guess several hundred fraudulent real estate loans in that area have just been uncovered, and this will likely result in a huge impact to the real estate market there.
Crazy stuff, it's a good idea to check your credit report periodically to make sure that you don't end up one of these people being screwed by mortgage fraud. You can do it for free by directly contacting each of the three bureaus.

10 Comments:
I borrowed this from his blog too. Here is a list of the top 20 sub-prime mortgage lenders over the past couple of years.
In order from top to bottom:
1 New Century
2 Fremont (FMT - industrial bank, big in commercial as well - but check out its 3rdQ financials and see the swing in securitization of residential mortgages. It's quite something.)
3 Option One (owned by HR Block, up for sale)
4 WMC Mortgage (owned by GE under GE Money)
5 First Franklin (Merrill buying from Nat City for 1.3 bil)
6 Ameriquest (Argent, major lawsuits)
7 Decision One (owned by HSBC)
8 BNC Mortgage (op. subsidiary of Lehman)
9 Accredited Home Lenders (look at its quarterlies)
10 Countrywide Financial
11 Ownit Mortgage (partially owned by BofA)
12 Washington Mutual
13 Mortgage Lenders Network USA (MLN)
14 ResMAE Mortgage
15 NovaStar Mortgage
16 Chase Home Finance
17 Encore Credit
18 Wells Fargo Home Mortgage
19 Fieldstone (lost 45 million in 3rdQ)
20 Aegis Mortgage Corporation
These rankings are published by New Century
11 and 13 are out of business now. Many of the others have heavily restricted mortgage funding lately. I could see this really impacting the real estate market because sub-prime buyers won't be able to get easy funding anymore.
By
Sven, at 4:01 PM
http://www.forsakencraft.com/
main.html#mort
I had to borrow this too. His blog is great. Mortgage gangsters. I think these are candid videos of mortgage brokers taking advantage of unsuspecting customers.
Knowledge is power, and you need to make sure you know more about loans before you go get one!
If you have any questions about a mortgage, please post it on this or another bubble blog. You'll get some great advice about it. Don't expect your broker to be honest with you.
By
Sven, at 4:05 PM
Sven,
Thanks for the great effort you are making to get the word out.
As far as these brokers go, I am currently getting a little tired of the LowerMyBills.com ads EVERYWHERE I browse to. The dancing fat chick and the trio of dancing guys, make me ill. It only takes a minute to read the fine print (hint: the asterisk is a clue) and see that I can't get a half million dollar loan for 1700 a month. Simple math people. We are freaking doomed
By
Boo Effing Hoo, at 8:09 PM
I honestly believe this will be vindicated in a year or two as the "sticky-correction" occurs (a common concept in real estate that prices tend to move up quickly and go down slowly, therefore down periods typically last longer than up periods).
I have been thinking about the whole "sticky-correction" idea lately, and I believe it will be different this time. IMO, we actually have two bubbles: the initial or base one which is a separation of prices from their fundamentals, and a second bubble built upon the first which is purely do to the crazy financing terms. The upper bubble or financing term bubble will deflate quickly because foreclosures will force properties on the market and credit tightening will take out the buyers. The second bubble or base bubble will be more sticky because it is similar to the last two bubbles in California.
I see the market (at least in Irvine) as 100% over inflated. This will require a 50% correction. The first 35% of the correction will happen in the first two years, and the last 15% will take 3 to 5 years.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
By
IrvineRenter, at 9:58 PM
Thanks so much for the time you put into this Sven.
I am totally mesmerized by this whole bubble...it is an amazing thing to watch.
The amount of money people are willig to pay for stucco and 2x4s is absolutely astounding.
I wish it wasn't going to take years to see the whole thing unfold, though. I, like the rest of America, have a very short attention span. :-)
By
jb, at 2:31 AM
"Sticky" ecomomics is a term used to describe a market that is resistant to change. Normally this is a downward trending market.
See Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sticky_(economics)
By
Anonymous, at 7:20 AM
Sven et. al.
Seeing as we are on the topic of subprime mortgages I wanted to see what you thought about this idea: The subprime mortgages will reak havoc on properties less than say $500-$600K but wont effect the upper strat of houses, say $1.2M and above, and there for there will be less of a correction in the upper level prices. I think this could be further refuted if one considers how wages have been polarized in America and in particular San Diego.
By
michaelcampion., at 7:31 AM
Being familiar with the Lamont house area and the others you describe, I can say I'd take the Wilbur Ave. house in a heartbeat over the Lamont one. No, it's not close to the beach, but those are nice houses in a very quiet and family-friendly part of PB, in the Kate Sessions Elementary School district... and yes, the view from Kate Sessions Park is wonderful.
(Back in the day -- 20 to 25 years ago -- I used to "park" there with whatever guy I was with. Or get out of the car and wander down the hill and just sit on the grass.)
I still think it's way overpriced, but compared to the Lamont/Crown Point property, it's better.
By
quietann, at 8:32 AM
Been sick lately.... Sorry for the slow posts. I hope to get better here soon.
By
Sven, at 7:11 PM
What do you guys know about the condos at Crown Point Jewel? Any good? I'm not from the area, curious...
By
jeff, at 12:31 AM
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